At 17:50 29/03/2020, Kevin.Mcconway wrote:
>Just a comment on the rates that John W quoted: ... First, they
>aren't based on "extensive global data". They are based on the data
>reported to ICNARC, the Intensive Care National Audit and Resource
>Centre (a UK body), from the start of the outbreak to 26 March, and
>the data on deaths are calculated only from the cases where they
>know the outcome (died in critical care, or left critical care alive).
You're right - my apologies . In my haste, I subconsciously read
"National" to be "International", and then jumped to the table to
find just the numbers to answer Paul's specific question.. However
(and having now looked at the report properly) ...
>Also, because there were only 165 cases, the percentages that John
>gives are based on pretty small denominators and so the estimates
>would be pretty imprecise even without the bias. There were 37 in
>all aged 16-49, 72 aged 50-69, 56 aged 70+.
That's all true, but what I would say is that, even with the small
numbers (and uncertainties about how ill the patients were), those
figures are broadly as I would have expected from my experiences. If
it had been felt that people in their 70s (and particularly 80s+)
with viral pneumonia would stand an appreciable chance of surviving
with (but not without) ventilation, then I ought to have seen plenty
of such patients in ICUs - but, as I've said, I virtually never did.
Kind Regards,
John
----------------------------------------------------------------
Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225
Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893
Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask]
Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK
----------------------------------------------------------------
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
|