here's a very simple pointer to what we can expect in the next fortnight
in the UK:
PHE data on daily count and cumulative number of confirmed cases in UK
https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=e5fd11150d274bebaaf8fe2a7a2bda11
growth since 28 Feb
date new cumul
28/02/2020 6 19
29/02/2020 4 23
01/03/2020 12 35
02/03/2020 5 40
03/03/2020 11 51
04/03/2020 34 85
05/03/2020 29 114
06/03/2020 46 160
07/03/2020 46 206
08/03/2020 65 271
09/03/2020 50 321
10/03/2020 52 373
11/03/2020 83 456
12/03/2020 139 595
13/03/2020 207 797
now look at the ratio of the cumulative figure to the previous days
cumulative
28/02/2020 1.46
29/02/2020 1.21
01/03/2020 1.52
02/03/2020 1.14
03/03/2020 1.28
04/03/2020 1.67
05/03/2020 1.34
06/03/2020 1.40
07/03/2020 1.29
08/03/2020 1.32
09/03/2020 1.18
10/03/2020 1.16
11/03/2020 1.22
12/03/2020 1.30
13/03/2020 1.34
the ratio has mean = 1.32 and is fairly stable.
Over the next fortnight, if growth remains like this, we can expect
797 * 1.32^14 = almost 39,000 cases, far beyond the current level in Italy.
Greg
> Yeah, it's good. Be worried.
>
> Best wishes,
>
> -- Andrei
>
> On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 09:52:37AM +0000, Adrian Byrne wrote:
>> Hi all,
>>
>> Some of you may have come across Tomas Pueyo's coronavirus article which
>> is currently doing the rounds online (please see link below for the
>> article) but I'd like to know what the number crunchers on here make of
>> Tomas' statistics - to what extent do you agree with the evidence he
>> presents?
>>
>> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
>>
>> Best wishes to all,
>>
>> Adrian
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> This message and any attachment are intended solely for the addressee
>> and may contain confidential information. If you have received this
>> message in error, please contact the sender and delete the email and
>> attachment.
>>
>> Any views or opinions expressed by the author of this email do not
>> necessarily reflect the views of the University of Nottingham. Email
>> communications with the University of Nottingham may be monitored
>> where permitted by law.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ******************************************************
>> Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
>> message will go only to the sender of this message.
>> If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
>> 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
>> to [log in to unmask]
>> Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender
>> and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by
>> subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about
>> Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past
>> issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site
>> www.radstats.org.uk.
>> *******************************************************
>
> --
> Andrei Morgan MRCPCH, MSc, PhD (Epidemiology / Neonatology)
> https://www.andreimorgan.net
>
> Honorary Clinical Lecturer,
> Department of Neonatology,
> Institute for Women's Health,
> University College London
>
>
> ******************************************************
> Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
> message will go only to the sender of this message.
> If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
> 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
> to [log in to unmask]
> Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and
> cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by
> subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about
> Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past
> issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site
> www.radstats.org.uk.
> *******************************************************
>
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
|