At 15:59 08/03/2020, Thomas Cox wrote:
>I did a post this morning, on facebook, because what I have feared
>is actually coming home to roost. While containment of cases,
>limited travel, and avoidance of public gatherings, onerous as they
>are, appear to have allowed the Chinese to have some success at
>containing the virus, exactly the opposite is taking place here in the US.
I think 'some success' is probably less strong than it could be. The
graph I recently posted indicated that they have 'almost contained'
the outbreak, with daily numbers of new cases lower than those in
many other countries, and dramatically lower than the current daily
figures in Korea, Italy and Iran. One assumes that at least some of
that success has been the result of their very 'radical' containment
measures, but we can't be certain as to how much of the success
results from that.
>There are now at least 437 cumulative cases in the US... For those
>unfamiliar with Volusia County, FL, it is the County in which
>Daytona Beach is located. It has just reported its first case of
>Covid-19, so we can be sure there are more to come. ...
To get back to something more statistical, and stressing again that I
certainly am not an epidemiologist, I presume that the evolution of
an outbreak is critically dependent upon the rate of appearance of
new cases in relation to the natural history of the disease. Taking
an 'extreme' example, if the rate of appearance of new cases is less
than the rate at which existing cases come to the end of their
'period of infectivity', the one presumably will not see an
exponential increase (if any) in 'active cases' ?
Kind Regards,
John
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