hi all
the revised version is now online (in same place)
http://www.labournet.net/other/2003/lockdown1.html
the pdf figures can be zoomed in
I've not used John's point re a more plausible assumption on how the
lockdown began (gradually). There's no problem doing so, if I get time
later. I expect this to be less of an issue than the heroic assumption
that all three transmission parameters are cut by a factor of 10. But if
that's not achieved, it gets worse.
Another big weakness is that this is pooled over the entire population,
i.e. the other parameters lifted from Alison Hill's site are not age
stratified, and neither is the model. I don't know if there's enough
clinical evidence yet to do so.
Greg
> hi all
>
> I've resolved the points bothering me today. Sadly, the forecasts are
about the same. But the credible intervals are wider, which may be some
consolation, or not, depending on which side it goes to.
> Metropolis-Hastings now converges, which was one issue.
>
> In the morning I'll amend the text and figures, and redo what's on
labournet.
>
> One point, which everyone could think about, is that the lockdown only
works if a) community transmission is cut drastically, and b)
transmission
> in hospital is also cut drastically. a) is about physical distancing. b)
is about PPE and cleaning, I guess. Without both a) and b), the
situation
> will be a lot worse, both for healthworkers, and for the spread of the
epidemic.
>
> Greg
>
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