hi all
I've resolved the points bothering me today. Sadly, the forecasts are
about the same. But the credible intervals are wider, which may be some
consolation, or not, depending on which side it goes to.
Metropolis-Hastings now converges, which was one issue.
In the morning I'll amend the text and figures, and redo what's on labournet.
One point, which everyone could think about, is that the lockdown only
works if a) community transmission is cut drastically, and b) transmission
in hospital is also cut drastically. a) is about physical distancing. b)
is about PPE and cleaning, I guess. Without both a) and b), the situation
will be a lot worse, both for healthworkers, and for the spread of the
epidemic.
Greg
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