At 18:02 25/03/2020, Kevin.Mcconway wrote:
>If everyone in the UK was infected at exactly the same time, then
>they'd all be at risk of death from the virus for the same two weeks
>(average), so the numbers of deaths from the virus in those two
>weeks would indeed be 22,400 a day (or so), or indeed even greater
>because deaths from "normal" causes would be included too. But after
>that two weeks, everyone who had survived the virus would no longer
>be at risk of death from the virus, so deaths for the rest of the
>year would be at the "normal" level ...
I don't really get that. If everyone in the UK were infected on the
same day, then, assuming a CFR of 2%, some 1.32 million (about double
the 'normal' UK annual death rate) would die on/around the same day
(~20 days later, I think), with few/no Covid-19-related deaths
thereafter, would they?
Kind Regards,
John
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