hi
not much different, but I've adjusted so the lockdown starts on 24 March,
and there's a minor adjustment to a parameter, which I'll explain
eventually.
so refer to this rather than mod2.png if you've been looking at that.
severe cases peak at almost 30,000 on Day 64 = 3 April
critical cases peak at over 14,000 on Day 74 = 13 April
25,000 deaths by end of 12 week lockdown on Day 138 = 16 June
12 weeks is an arbitrary figure, plucked from Boris earlier claims, no
longer repeated. The 10% heroic assumption is still there. And everything
could be wrong anyway...
greg
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