At 14:23 25/03/2020, Thomas Cox wrote:
>Am I correct in assuming that CFR is only the direct deaths from
>Covid-19 rather than the larger fatality rate that would incorporate
>people who die of other conditions due to the fact that their health
>care needs won't be met when the health care system is overwhelmed,
>or who may go hungry, or may not be able to get needed medications
>because pharmacies are shut down, or who die in the future because
>of reduced numbers of health professionals. I am thinking it is
>really hard to imagine the total death count caused by Covid-19.
Yes, of course - directly Covid-19-related deaths are the only ones
on which we have got some sort of handle.
I would say that it's essentially impossible to estimate the number
of 'collateral' deaths that there might be, particularly if we
persist with the apparent policy/aim (that I don't really understand)
of trying to offer a level of intensive care to elderly people
seriously infected with Covid-19 which is far in excess of what they
could probably normally expect if they suffered from life-threatening
pneumonia from some other cause when we did NOT have a pandemic.
However, it's worth remembering that a high proportion of the deaths
will be in elderly, retired people - so the impact on society in
general of those deaths is probably a lot less than one fear. There
will undoubtedly be a disproportionate number of much younger
healthcare professionals etc. infected, but the great majority of
them will not die, and most of the survivors will probably fairly
quickly return to work.
Kind Regards,
John
----------------------------------------------------------------
Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225
Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893
Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask]
Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK
----------------------------------------------------------------
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
|