At 20:36 22/03/2020, John Bibby wrote:
>Grenada and Mozambique have announced their first cases. Both were
>travellers from the UK. .... Quite apart from the question of
>whether we should be exporting our disease like this, does this give
>a potential new way of estimating how many cases there are in
>UK? .... To take simple data (and using heroic assumptions) - lets
>say that G people went from UK to Grenada, and that 1 of these was
>infected. That's a ratio 1/G. Assuming perfect mixing back in the
>UK, that gives an estimated proportion for the UK.
You're surely just using "those who travel from UK Grenada" as a
(probably not too good) attempt at a random sample of the UK
population, aren't you? I need not tell you that there are far more
conventional methods of 'random' sampling than that, and most are
probably closer to random than using as one's sample that sub-group
of the UK population who choose to travel to Granada!
Kind Regards,
John
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