If you think a 10 day time lag multiplies by 100, you think the daily
growth rate is 100^0.1 = 1.6. I think it is 1.3 in the UK, which means 10
days will multiply by 1.3^10 = 13.8, not 100.
But I end up close to your rule of thumb, because it's not 10 days, it's 17
N deaths now = N*100 cases 17 days ago = N*100*1.3^17 = N*8650
Greg
> I haven't quite got my head round this, but the rule of thumb I have been
> using for some time is
> Ncases = Ndeaths* 10000.
>
> The 10,000 is 100*100 where one 100 comes from the 1% mortality rate, and
> the other 100 comes from the 10 day time lag.
>
> I think this is in the same ballpark as Pueyo's estimate.
>
> Please put me right if I am wrong.
>
> John BIBBY
>
> On Fri, 13 Mar 2020, 10:44 Andrei Morgan, <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
>> Yeah, it's good. Be worried.
>>
>> Best wishes,
>>
>> -- Andrei
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 09:52:37AM +0000, Adrian Byrne wrote:
>> > Hi all,
>> >
>> > Some of you may have come across Tomas Pueyo's coronavirus article
>> which
>> is currently doing the rounds online (please see link below for the
>> article) but I'd like to know what the number crunchers on here make of
>> Tomas' statistics - to what extent do you agree with the evidence he
>> presents?
>> >
>> >
>> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
>> >
>> > Best wishes to all,
>> >
>> > Adrian
>> >
>> >
>> >
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