I agree this assumes infected and survived implies immune. But if 60% are
actually immune, then if R0 = 2.35 the disease will not spread further, is
the argument
> At 18:31 14/03/2020, Greg Dropkin wrote:
>>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
>>R0 = 2.35 before travel restrictions
>>1-1/R0 = 1.35/2.35 = 0.6 roughly
>
> Thanks, but I'm a little confused by this. Can such a simple
> mathematical approach be assumed to 'work' with any pathogen,
> particularly one of which we have no prior experience in humans?
>
> The assumption of that calculation seems to be that everyone who is
> infected will develop effective and lasting immunity, but that is
> surely not the case with all pathogens?
>
> Kind Regards,
>
>
> John
>
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