The UK has just sustained a mean growth ratio of 1.32 for 15 days (28/2 -
13/3), and this is not from outliers, it's pretty stable and the latest
ratio is 1.34.
I have no idea whether the current interventions will reduce it. They are
nothing like what Tomas Pueyo is calling for, though, and nothing like
what happened in China to stop the growth.
As you (and he) say, there are probably quite a few more cases already,
yet to be detected. If the growth ratio over the next fortnight is 1.1 but
the actual current cumulative is 10,000, expect 38,000 at the end of the
fortnight. I guess we'll see.
another point, again in his article and in the twitter feeds from Italy,
is that if the NHS is overwhelmed, there will be a lot of other deaths
from other illnesses which were not treated due to the unavoidable focus
on COVID-19.
Greg
> At 20:39 13/03/2020, Greg Dropkin wrote:
>>the ratio has mean = 1.32 and is fairly stable.
>>Over the next fortnight, if growth remains like this, we can expect 797
* 1.32^14 = almost 39,000 cases, far beyond the current level in
>> Italy.
>
> If regarded as a purely mathematical exercise, without considering any
biology and 'interventions', I have to agree.
>
> However, I don't think that any country (not even China) has yet shown a
ratio approaching 1.32 that was sustained for anything like 14 days, so
that mathematical model may be significantly 'less than perfect' in
terms of what is actually likely to happen.
>
> Mind you, if you took the view (that many seem to) that the current true
number of infected people in the UK was "at least 10,000" (and perhaps a
lot more), rather than 797, the result of your calculations would be
considerably more frightening!
>
> Kind Regards,
>
>
> John
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------- Dr John
Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225
> Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893
> Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask]
> Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
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