I've asked this, in one way or another, a few times before, but
no-one seems to have dared to comment/answer!...
I'm struggling to understand how, at least in most countries, there
is any possibility that we are NOT seriously under-estimating the
number of what could be 'confirmed cases' of Covid-19 infection,
thereby, in turn, seriously overestimating the 'lethality' (CFR) -
given that the only estimates we are seeing are simply obtained by
dividing the number of deaths by the number of 'confirmed cases'
(which, generally, means test-positive cases).
As far as I can make out (albeit maybe with an uncertainty of an
order of magnitude) there are, globally, probably at least a million
new cases every day of 'mild respiratory tract infections' - indeed,
quite not impossibly around 1 million per week in the US
alone. Given that, in terms of the big picture, 'virtually none' of
the individuals concerned are being tested for Covid-19, it is surely
pretty inevitable that very substantial number of mild cases of
Covid-19 infection are being 'missed' (i,e. not counted).
The numerator of the calculation is presumably pretty
'clean'/accurate. Other than in the very earliest stages, I would
imagine that the great majority of people ill enough with a
respiratory illness to ultimately die will have been 'tested' - so I
would not expect many false positives or false negatives.
What am I missing?
Kind Regards,
John
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Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225
Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893
Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask]
Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK
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