At 07:48 07/03/2020, John Bibby wrote:
>I'd be interested to see this in context - with comparable estimates
>relating to normal flu, suicides, war, road accidents, and other
>terrors of modern living.
John, if that is sort-of directed at me (you did send it as a reply
to one of mine!), I'm not sure what you're asking for.
In your draft blog, you have already highlighted some of the
'everyday' causes of death which, which have global annual death
rates which are orders of magnitude greater than what we are
currently seeing with Covid-19 - but in none of which cases are any
radical, let alone 'Draconian', measures being taken to reduce them,
nor is there any 'large-scale 'global excitement about them'. As I
said in my response to your draft blog, I think the problem is that
of uncertainty - and that if we were pretty sure that the annual
death rate from Covid-19 infection was never going to get beyond,
say, '5 figures', sensible people might be a lot less concerned than
they are when, as is currently the case, the future is totally unknown.
However, with the exception of 'flu (which is largely seasonal) all
those other causes of death are essentially continuous at fairly
constant rate, such that graphs like I produced for the Covid-19
epidemic in China would not be appropriate or helpful.
What is it that you would be "interested to see"?
Kind Regards,
John
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