Given the considerable uncertainty about the accuracy of the
estimates of the number of infected cases, I thought it would be
worthwhile to look at a more tangible and probably much less
uncertain statistic - unless I have got my thinking totally wrong!
With China now reporting only 20-30 new cases per day, and deaths
almost down to 'single figures' per day (11 yesterday), the outbreak
there is essentially over, with a current total of deaths of 3,173,
such that its seems very probable that the total number of deaths
during the outbreak will not end up any more than about 3,500 at most.
That means that China has demonstrated that, having taken the
measures that they did, they will have ended up with a situation in
which (assuming a population of about 1.4 billion) that the outbreak
will probably have resulted in deaths in about 0.00025% of the
population, or 0.25 per 100,000 of population.
Similarly, (South) Korea appears to be almost over its outbreak, with
a current reported total of 66 deaths out of a population of around
51 million. If one assumes an ultimate total of, say, 80 deaths,
that would mean that, having taken the measures that they have, they
will probably end up with the outbreak having resulted in death in
about 0.00016% of the population, or 0.16 per 100,000 of population.
Extrapolating to the UK, that suggests that if we had taken similarly
effective measures to those taken China or Korea, we would probably
have ended up with a total of about 103-165 deaths due to our
outbreak, equivalent to about 3-4 weeks of UK road deaths.
The only uncertainty about all these figures relates to the accuracy
with which deaths due to Covid-19 have been correctly (and
completely) captured and recorded in China and Korea. Whilst I
realise that there are some contrary views around, I personally do
not think that those figures are likely to be desperately
inaccurate. Let's face it, even if 90% of the deaths due to Covid-19
had been 'missed' (which would seem to be a ridiculous suggestion),
the population mortality of their outbreak would still be incredibly low.
So, it seems that China and Korea can show us what could presumably
be achieved by any country which took similar measures to those which
they implemented, resulting in population death rates which,
dispassionately, one has to regard as 'trivial' (almost all causes of
death one can think of will have population death rates greater than
the figures mentioned above). What other countries (like the UK)
will actually achieve with what measures they are (or are not) taking
is something which remains to be seen!
... or have I got my thinking totally wrong?!
Kind Regards,
John
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Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225
Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893
Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask]
Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK
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