Until there is widespread testing, we have no idea what the true incidence
is, so no idea if immunity will play any significant role at this stage.
We don't know if asymptomatic transmission is a major factor. We don't
know if recovery actually gives immunity, or for how long.
The premise of buying time with a lockout is that the NHS can obtain
sufficient resources to be ready for what happens afterwards (see Fig 2 or
4 - when the lockdown ends, the crisis resumes in force), and the
possibility of an effective therapy and/or vaccine.
I would think the "exit" strategy depends on all of these. Testing can and
must be done. They need to sort out PPE immediately, both to protect staff
and to cut that aspect of transmission (b2 and b3 in the model). I've no
idea how close they are with therapy or vaccine, but obviously some people
are trying.
I don't think it makes sense to advocate an "exit" strategy without
answers on at least some of these.
Greg
> So regarding (a), what SORT of exit strategy do we need?
>
> As a neoliberal fool going where radical angels will fear to tread:
> Maybe we want to maximise growth subject to minimising loss of QALYs.
>
> I am sure that others will have better ideas and will HATE my way of
> expressing it!
>
> John BIBBY
>
> On Sun, 29 Mar 2020, 22:30 Greg Dropkin, <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
>> hi all
>>
>> I've resolved the points bothering me today. Sadly, the forecasts are
>> about the same. But the credible intervals are wider, which may be some
>> consolation, or not, depending on which side it goes to.
>> Metropolis-Hastings now converges, which was one issue.
>>
>> In the morning I'll amend the text and figures, and redo what's on
>> labournet.
>>
>> One point, which everyone could think about, is that the lockdown only
>> works if a) community transmission is cut drastically, and b)
>> transmission
>> in hospital is also cut drastically. a) is about physical distancing. b)
>> is about PPE and cleaning, I guess. Without both a) and b), the
>> situation
>> will be a lot worse, both for healthworkers, and for the spread of the
>> epidemic.
>>
>> Greg
>>
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