yes. your point is valid, and politically very important, but that is not
what this model is estimating.
but the curves for severe and critical cases show what pressure the NHS is
about to be under (almost immediately) even with the heroic assumption of
transmission cut to 10%. We know that other treatments are being rationed.
Greg
> Am I correct in assuming that CFR is only the direct deaths from Covid-19
> rather than the larger fatality rate that would incorporate people who
> die of other conditions due to the fact that their health care needs
> won't be met when the health care system is overwhelmed, or who may go
> hungry, or may not be able to get needed medications because pharmacies
> are shut down, or who die in the future because of reduced numbers of
> health professionals.
>
> I am thinking it is really hard to imagine the total death count caused by
> Covid-19.
>
> Thomas Cox PhD RN
> [log in to unmask]
>
>
> On Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 09:58:57 AM EDT, John Whittington
> <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> At 11:12 25/03/2020, Greg Dropkin wrote:
>>explicitly, the unmitigated scenario, once again assuming the
>>parameters are right and I've set this up correctly, is that on day
>>136 (end of the 12 weeks) there would be 1.28m deaths (and not many
>>after that). I can't tell you the age distribution of deaths, as the
>>model is pooled - some day, maybe.
>
> In terms of the number of deaths, one presumably does not need a
> model, nor even a calculator, to get that sort of number for a 'very
> worst case' scenario ('do absolutely nothing', wait for the entire UK
> population to get infected') - given only a guesstimate of the CFR, I
> can easily do it in my head ...
>
> ... given an estimated overall CFR of 1%, the UK would then see about
> 0.66 million deaths, so if one guessed an overall CFR of 2%, one
> would get 1.32 million deaths, very close to your modelled figure.
>
> Does your "unmitigated scenario" amount to something other than
> taking absolutely no steps to restrict spread and waiting for
> everyone to get infected?
>
> As for the 'when', yesterday I did some very hasty, 'rough and
> ready', simulations of totally unrestricted spread, and ended up with
> figures about half of what you suggest - nearly all the population
> infected by about Day 45 and hence (assuming 20days from infection to
> death), the deaths nearly all occurring by about Day 65. However,
> since it was naive (and involving a good few assumptions and
> simplifications), and done in haste, I'm going to try to check it
> this afternoon before saying any more, or trying to claim that it is
> even remotely correct.
>
> Kind Regards,
>
>
> John
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------
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