Both countries, in the periods you are looking at, experienced exponential
growth, i.e. governed by a single rate parameter (the slope of the log
curves I sent to the list last week). As I understand it, two things
determine the rate parameter for cases: R0 and the latency. R0 measures
the rate at which infectious people infect susceptible people. latency
measures the delay between infected and infectious. I'd guess latency
(probably shorter than the incubation period to first symptoms) is pretty
similar in different populations. So I think the rate parameter for the
early phase is mainly just a function of R0. Which is partly socially
determined. So, until policy kicks in, this is just saying Italy and UK
had similar R0. Is that surprising? The death rate depends on other
things, like the age distribution, state of the health service... so maybe
that's a bit more surprising.
Greg
> On Sun, 22 Mar 2020, 14:59 John Bibby, <[log in to unmask]>
> wrote:
>
>>
>
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