hi Andrei, all
one of the key assumptions in the SEIR model as implemented on Alison
Hill's site, is that the length of stay in the E or I compartments is
exponentially distributed. This is key to the formulas implemented in the
code.
On the other hand, Wikipedia
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology)
mentions that an Erlang distribution might be more appropriate.
Or it might be something else entirely.
Alison Hill's site includes current clinical references on the Sources
tab, which I've not read yet.
Does anyone know if any of the empirical evidence on COVID-19 sheds any
light on the distribution of length of stay in any of the compartments?
e.g. presumably the raw data would include how long each patient spent
after developing symptoms, before recovery or progression to severe
status.
thanks
Greg
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