At 23:59 14/03/2020, Andrei Morgan wrote:
>I heard that one estimate from "real" modellers was 5 million.
But even that is very unlikely, isn't it, given that it implies a
~7.5% overall CFR even if the entire population were infected?
>And we'll never get to a HTI of 100% - even stuff like measles is
>probably only 70-80% coverage.
No, but's that because we've never been a position that everyone in
the population has been infected with measles (or received the
vaccine). With the sort of scenarios you're talking about, the
entire population of the UK would have to be infected with Covid-19
and, if infection confers immunity in everyone who becomes infected,
that would mean that 100% of the survivors would be immune ... unless
you are perhaps suggesting that only 70-80% of people who have had
measles (or measles vaccine) become immune?
Kind Regards,
John
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