hi
even without any modelling, if they think 60% is the threshold they are
aiming for over 30m adults to be infected, which means over 300,000 deaths
at 1%, and 100,000 deaths at 0.3%. Which you would have thought is
political suicide, once the public realises.
if time permits I'll try your model and send you some R code to compare
Do you have data for other diseases on the percentage of survivors who get
long term immunity?
Greg
> Hi,
>
> Paul Fine is amazing, he taught me loads about infectious disease
> epidemiology and was the one who got me interested in the subject
> (albeit, as a secondary interest/hobby - my main focus is perinatal and
> non-communicable disease epidemiology). Interestingly enough, he started
> life as a veterinarian before getting into human epi...
>
> Anyway, the UK's herd immunity idea is, put mildly, bollocks. I've
> written another post today in which I've started to explain some of the
> flaws with the UK strategy although I haven't completely elaborated them
> - don't want to freak people out too much all at once! Please feel free
> to comment, either directly on the article or on list or just directly
> to me via email. Both articles I've written are on my site:
>
> * https://www.andreimorgan.net
>
> Best wishes,
>
> -- Andrei
>
> On Sat, Mar 14, 2020 at 09:25:02PM +0000, Thomas Cox wrote:
>> I think the first two paragraphs should have made that clear.
>>
>> Abstract
>>
>> The term “herd immunity” is widely used but carries a variety of
>> meanings [1–7]. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune
>> among individuals in a population. Others use it with reference to a
>> particular threshold proportion of immune individuals that should lead
>> to a decline in incidence of infection. Still others use it to refer to
>> a pattern of immunity that should protect a population from invasion of
>> a new infection. A common implication of the term is that the risk of
>> infection among susceptible individuals in a population is reduced by
>> the presence and proximity of immune individuals (this is sometimes
>> referred to as “indirect protection” or a “herd effect”). We provide
>> brief historical, epidemiologic, theoretical, and pragmatic public
>> health perspectives on this concept.
>>
>> Though coined almost a century ago [8], the term “herd immunity” was not
>> widely used until recent decades, its use stimulated by the increasing
>> use of vaccines, discussions of disease eradication, and analyses of the
>> costs and benefits of vaccination programs. An important milestone was
>> the recognition by Smith in 1970 [9] and Dietz in 1975 [10] of a simple
>> threshold theorem—that if immunity (ie, successful vaccination) were
>> delivered at random and if members of a population mixed at random, such
>> that on average each individual contacted R0 individuals in a manner
>> sufficient to transmit the infection [11, 12], then incidence of the
>> infection would decline if the proportion immune exceeded (R0 − 1)/R0,
>> or 1 –1/R0. This is illustrated in Figures 1 and 2.
>>
>>
>> Thomas Cox PhD RN
>> [log in to unmask]
>>
>>
>> On Saturday, March 14, 2020, 05:13:28 PM EDT, John Whittington
>> <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>>
>> At 20:59 14/03/2020, Thomas Cox wrote:
>> >and yet...
>> >https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077
>>
>> After a very quick skip through, that all seems to be about
>> immunological herd immunity in the sense I described it. Could you
>> perhaps direct me to the part which you were wanting to bring to my
>> attention? Thanks
>>
>> Kind Regards,
>>
>>
>> John
>>
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>> Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225
>> Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893
>> Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask]
>> Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>>
>>
>> ******************************************************
>> Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
>> message will go only to the sender of this message.
>> If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
>> 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
>> to [log in to unmask]
>> Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender
>> and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by
>> subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about
>> Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past
>> issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site
>> www.radstats.org.uk.
>> *******************************************************
>
> --
> Andrei Morgan MRCPCH, MSc, PhD (Epidemiology / Neonatology)
> https://www.andreimorgan.net
>
> Honorary Clinical Lecturer,
> Department of Neonatology,
> Institute for Women's Health,
> University College London
>
>
> ******************************************************
> Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
> message will go only to the sender of this message.
> If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
> 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
> to [log in to unmask]
> Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and
> cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by
> subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about
> Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past
> issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site
> www.radstats.org.uk.
> *******************************************************
>
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
|