At 22:08 12/03/2020, Thomas Cox wrote:
>My point was, and remains, that I think it is foolish to extrapolate
>from the US to estimate disease in other countries.
Even if foolish, it appears to give very reasonable/credible answers
for influenza deaths ...
... As I wrote earlier, multiple sources suggest global influenza
death rates in the range 250,000 to 650,000 per year, and most of
those sources are pretty 'reputable' ones, who one imagines have
done all they can to base those estimates on as many factors as they
are able to take into account. The current 20,000 US 'flu deaths
(for less than a year, but most of the 'flu season) leads, by
per-population extrapolation, to a figure of 400,000 for the entire
world - right in the middle of the range of expert estimates
available. So, I would say that the extrapolation is pretty
reasonable, even if 'foolish'!
Kind Regards,
John
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