At 19:08 03/03/2020, Thomas Cox wrote:
>John also said: 'The road death figures you've quote appear to be
>slightly lower than the CDC's estimates of US 'flu deaths, not
>''twice as lethal''
>My point was that the current number of deaths in the US from
>2019/2020 flu are 18,000.
>In what number system are 35,485; 37,806; 37,133, and 36,560 less
>than 18,000, rather than approximately twice 18,000?
>Perhaps when you explain the details of the number system you are
>using, we will better understand the points you are trying to make.
I would say that you do yourself no credit, and your cause no
favours, by resorting to being sarcastic.
As you correctly quote, I was talking about CDC estimates. As I said
before, over the four 'flu seasons from 2014/5 to 2017/8 (the most
recent data in what I'm looking at), the average of the CDC's
estimates of annual 'flu deaths in the US was 43,250 - and in your
number system, as well as mine, 35,485; 37,806; 37,133, and 36,560
are all less than 43,250.
I believe that your 18,000 figure related to the first two months of
2020, not to the whole of the 2019/2020 'flu season.
Whilst talking about the CDC estimates, I would add that in the most
recent of their data I'm looking at (2017/8), they estimated 61,000
deaths out of 45,000,000 cases (and 810,000 hospitalisations). That
is a 'lethality' of 0.136%, nearly three times higher than you were
suggesting. In terms of deaths per population, that is about 18.7
deaths per 100,000 of population, which is considerably lower than
the corresponding figure for England for the same flu season of about
47 deaths per 100,000 population. As I said before I don';t know
whether that trans-Atlantic difference is because 'flu is much more
common and/or much more lethal in England, or whether one or both
sets of estimates are well off the mark.
Kind Regards,
John
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