i.e. say your chances of EVER getting it were 0.001
> hi John
>
> I don't think this is really the point. Say your chances were 0.001, and
> you feel ok with that, and say that's the same for all adults in the UK.
> Then we should expect around 55,000 adult cases if transmission is
> unchecked. Say 20% require hospitalisation - i.e. 11,000 extra patients.
> If the UK death rate per case (hospitalised or not) for COVID-19 remained
> as currently at 1.6% (big assumption, given what will happen to the NHS)
> we would expect 860 deaths directly from COVID-19, plus all the
> consequences of delaying or cancelling other NHS treatments to handle the
> extra patients, plus all the other social and economic impacts. Is that an
> emergency or not?
>
> Of course, the reason why 11,000 extra patients (remember this is a
> fictitious figure) is such a big deal is that the NHS has been run down,
> deliberately. Bed occupancy is typically 95% or higher, risking
> cross-infection. 100,000 staff vacancies etc.
>
> Greg
>
>> A. How many people will I be within 3 yards of today? Perhaps 100-500.
>>
>> B. How many of these will be within 3 yards for more than 5 minutes?
>> Perhaps 10.
>>
>> C. How many people in UK actually have Covid? 300 - 30,000 i.e. less
>> than
>> one person in 20,000
>>
>> How many of C are likely to be in B?
>> Zero or one.
>>
>> If answer is 'one', what is chance I get it?
>>
>> ............ get it?
>>
>> John BIBBY
>>
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