Hello,
Thanks for posting this - very interesting.
I guess people also saw the report produced on Monday by the group at
Imperial which is the research feeding the government's strategy:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
I've spent quite a lot of time today writing some analysis about it:
https://www.andreimorgan.net/posts/covid_strategy/
My conclusions remain unchanged from previously. Please isolate
yourselves everyone - and enjoy reading while you do ;-)
Best wishes,
-- Andrei
On Mon, Mar 16, 2020 at 10:06:56AM +0000, Graham Burvill wrote:
> Hi all,
>
> Some brief but insightful research has been released that looks at the demography of the outbreak, fatalities and how transmission unfolds across different countries and thought it a worthy share.
>
> The report uses data from https://population.un.org/wpp/ to evidence what we are told is a real-time flattening of the curve.
> As someone on Twitter mentioned, using reported cases in Italy, Lodi who lockdown early, appear to have flattened the curve of new cases compared to Bergamo, who waited until weeks later where numbers continue to rise. Although as has been discussed in an earlier conversation about the accuracy of the data that is released, how much of this stemming in cases is down to people not reporting infection due to being advised to not leave there homes remains a lot less clear.
>
> Link below:
>
> https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00dfe3677493faa421fc2ea38e295
>
> Once again i feel this begs the question if the approach currently being adopted in the UK can really be considered effective to tackle the epidemic.
>
> Best wishes,
>
> Graham Burvill
>
> ******************************************************
> Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
> message will go only to the sender of this message.
> If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
> 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
> to [log in to unmask]
> Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
> *******************************************************
--
Andrei Morgan MRCPCH, MSc, PhD (Epidemiology / Neonatology)
https://www.andreimorgan.net
Honorary Clinical Lecturer,
Department of Neonatology,
Institute for Women's Health,
University College London
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
|