Thanks.
And here is a graph of the function y = (1-1/R0)*100, where y is the
percent of people who need to be immune to achieve herd immunity.
I think.
regards,
Jim
ps From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity:
"When a critical proportion of the population becomes immune, called the
herd immunity threshold (HIT) or herd immunity level (HIL), the disease
may no longer persist in the population, ceasing to be endemic.[5][30]
This threshold can be calculated ..."
On 14/03/2020 18:31, Greg Dropkin wrote:
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
>
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext
>
> R0 = 2.35 before travel restrictions
>
> 1-1/R0 = 1.35/2.35 = 0.6 roughly
>
> Greg
>
>> Is there any simple explanation of Vallance's statement that when 60% of
>> the population have had the disease, we will have herd immunity?
>>
>> Is this based on the assumption of one homogeneous population?
>>
>> What happens if we have two populations, young and old? - if the 60% are
>> the youngsters, will this provide herd immunity for the oldies?
>>
>> JOHN BIBBY
>>
>> PS: I'm glad to see that Bojo is at last accepting Radstats advice not to
>> close schools "because of the grandparent problem". He doesn't yet seem to
>> realise he would also lose a lot of NHS staff too - though I'm sure that
>> all those surplus music teachers will be glad of a temporary job at the
>> frontline. (I'm realising how fortunate we pensioners are - we just have
>> to
>> do nothing, and our money keep rolling in. Or does it?)
>>
>> *==== *
>>
>> *1st April *: Victorian York & Yorkshire - please Share our "York and All
>> That" event: www.York1900.eventbrite.com
>>
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Sheffield University, UK.
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