Yes, thank you for interesting disussions.
And ...
Just as 9/11 yielded a 'natural experiment' for what happens if all
planes are grounded, so this will provided many types of natural
experiment. I can only think of a few, but there must be many more:
effect of no traffic on roadkill of hares/badgers
effect of no transport on air/water pollution
global warming, obviously
suicide rate (goes down in war time?)
general health of population
effect of home/no schooling on educational level of children
are fishermen still working? If not, effect on fish populations
I am sure there are many more, and more interesting effects, that I have
not considered here.
regards,
Jim
On 29/03/2020 07:20, Gandini Sara wrote:
> Thanks a lot for this discussion!
> Decisions on how to deal with covid crisis will also have long-term
> consequences in terms of public health and deaths. All possible public
> health strategies should be discussed avoiding ideological and party
> positions but with strong intellectual honesty because they also have
> long-term consequences due to the economic crisis.
> I think Italy should have this discussion and learn from you. Thank you
> for bringing all these problems and continuing to discuss
> Best wishes from Italy
> Sara
>
> Scarica Outlook per Android <https://aka.ms/ghei36>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* email list for Radical Statistics <[log in to unmask]> on
> behalf of John Bibby <[log in to unmask]>
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:20:50 PM
> *To:* [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
> *Subject:* Re: Corona QALYs
> Thanks Andrei.
> This is the first I have heard of J values, and I note this paper uses a
> figure equating to a QALY value of £250,000 which is some 10 times
> higher than the value used by NICE.
>
> Further investigation is called for!
>
> John BIBBY
>
> On Sat, 28 Mar 2020, 20:58 Andrei Morgan, <[log in to unmask]
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>> wrote:
>
> Hi,
>
> Very interesting discussion, please continue! Although I'm very
> time-limited nowadays (strange when I barely leave the house any
> more).
>
> I think on a similar topic:
>
> Thomas, P., 2020, "J-value assessment of how best to combat
> Covid-19", Paper for Nanotechnology Perceptions.
> http://jvalue.co.uk/covid-19.php
>
> Quite mathematical so many of you will probably like it more than
> me. BIG question indeed is about appropriateness of lockdown continuing
> indefinitely - how many people did Austerity already kill? The recession
> of the next five years following this will be worse...
>
> Some of us have already started thinking about this issue and trying to
> get info together.
>
> Best wishes,
>
> -- Andrei
>
> On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 02:56:54PM +0000, Kevin.Mcconway wrote:
> > A bit more, some stemming from an off list exchange that John and
> I had earlier. If anyone would rather I shut up, please say.
> >
> > John asked whether I know of a better methodology for looking at
> this sort of question. If there is, I don’t know of it, but just
> because I don’t know personally of a better methodology, that
> doesn’t mean that this kind of cost-benefit methodology should be used.
> >
> > So should people be trying to do this? That is, somehow to ask
> the question of whether the mitigation and suppression measures
> (like lockdowns) are “worth it”, or whether they should not happen
> or be replaced by something less extreme. I think it is difficult to
> answer whether people should be trying to do it. Whether we could
> get any good rational discussion of this kind of thing at this kind
> of time is another question. I suspect not.
> >
> > I think it probably is a question that should be asked, but to a
> large extent I think that because I think it shows up the
> limitations of this kind of cost-benefit (or whatever one calls it)
> analysis. It also demonstrates that this sort of rationing,
> decisions on trade-offs, and so on go on all the time, sometimes
> openly and in terms with stated policies and guidance from NICE
> etc., sometime implicitly. (Not necessarily deliberately hidden,
> just done intuitively, or on precedent, or whatever.)
> >
> > One issue that it throws up is how to deal with decisions that
> lead to, or avoid, bad effects on a large number of individuals at
> once. If the loss of QALYs is the same in both cases, is it worse
> that 50,000 people die over a very short period of time, or if 5,000
> people a year die over 10 years? The former is perceived to be
> worse, but should it be dealt with as worse? I think here there’s a
> risk of confusion with the (probably nonlinear) effects on the
> economy of big losses of life.
> >
> > And there is also a relationship to a question that’s been
> endlessly discussed (and relates to something John put in his
> message earlier), though this is probably an utter nitpick in the
> current context – in working with DALYs (or QALYs or similar),
> should there be age weighting, and should there be discounting (so
> that a death or disability that occurs in a year’s time should be
> downweighted in comparison with one that occurs now)? When WHO ran
> the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project, up to 2004 anyway, their
> principal figures included discounting (3% per year) and, in some
> years, age weighting too (the value of a DALY went up from birth to
> age 22 and then down after that – there’s a graph of the function
> they used in the Wikipedia article on DALYs, which shows e.g. that a
> DALY at age 22 was worth over twice as much as a DALY at age 70).
> But at some point, possibly at the same time as GBD moved over to
> IHME, they stopped using discounting and age weighting.
> >
> > OK, enough already. I’m not sure this is helping.
> >
> > Best wishes,
> > Kevin
> >
> > ******************************************************
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>
> --
> Andrei Morgan MRCPCH, MSc, PhD (Epidemiology / Neonatology)
> https://www.andreimorgan.net
>
> Honorary Clinical Lecturer,
> Department of Neonatology,
> Institute for Women's Health,
> University College London
>
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--
James V Stone
Honorary Associate Professor,
Sheffield University, UK.
Web: sebtelpress.com
Twitter: @jgvfwstone
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