Hi,
Personally, I think Pueyo's models were pretty good. But as we've
already seen, I'm not great at coding and couldn't replicate them ;-)
I also think that the number of cases in the UK is pretty high - clearly
vastly underestimated by the official statistics. I've spoken to quite a
few people who quite clearly have COVID-19 but haven't been tested. So
I'd be happy to accept the numbers you propose below.
In fact, this evening, I came across this link:
* https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/
This is an excellent site. You can play with the model parameters, all
the background info is there, and you can also see the source code (it's
on github). It's late, so I haven't actually had a chance to do any of
that yet - but it's on my list for first thing tomorrow morning!
Best wishes,
-- Andrei
On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 09:06:33PM -0000, Greg Dropkin wrote:
> hi
>
> Tomas Pueyo's article argues that if D people died today, around 100*D
> people were newly infected around 17 days ago, assuming deaths/cases =
> 0.01
>
> But therefore, if there were cD cumulative deaths up to today, there were
> 100*cD cumulative cases up as of 17 days ago.
>
> If so, since 103 UK patients have died as of 18 Mar, the cumulative number
> of cases on 1 Mar was around 10,000.
>
> The cumulative number of confirmed cases on 1 Mar was 35.
>
> The cumulative number of confirmed cases is growing at about 1.3 per day.
> e.g. (18 Mar CC / 1 Mar CC)^(1/17) = (2626/35)^(1/17) = 1.29 and this is
> fairly stable.
>
> If the proportion of the true cases which are being confirmed (i.e. by
> testing in hospital) remains constant, then the true cases are also
> growing at around 1.3 per day.
>
> If so, there are now around 10,000 * 2626/35 = 750,000 actual UK cases.
>
> Do we think so? If not, which bits of this are wrong?
>
> Greg
>
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--
Andrei Morgan MRCPCH, MSc, PhD (Epidemiology / Neonatology)
https://www.andreimorgan.net
Honorary Clinical Lecturer,
Department of Neonatology,
Institute for Women's Health,
University College London
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