> can I record my amazed surprise that 'senior statisticians'
> were unaware of
> the 'drift' from unemployment to invalidity benefit in the
> 80s and early
> 90s.
Dave Byrne's amazed surprise is fully justified. But what was common
knowledge in the North East was not acknowledged in other parts of the
country. More relevant to the Draft Code of Practice, the drift was not
recorded in official statistics in any meaningful way.
The justifiably famous Royal Statistical Society Report on the measurement
of unemployment published in 1995 includes a Table listing 'Changes in
unemployment counting methods since 1979'. The table includes 30 different
items most of which give estimates of the effect of the different ways in
which entitlement to unemployment benefit was tightened. But there is no
mention of the drift to invalidity benefit.
The RSS Report was made with 'the full co-operation' of what was then the
Employment Department Statistical Services Division. The then Director of
ED statistics led the discussion with a 2000 word contribution that does not
mention the drift to invalidity benefit. So it appears that government
statisticians in the North East (and some other areas) either did not tell
their colleagues in the HQ what was happening in their region, or what they
said was not listened to, or the ED was deliberately supressing what should
have been public knowledge.
The important point is that it is fanciful to expect that such problems can
be overcome by giving responsibility just to the National Statistician.
As Dave Byrne says 'The social scientific point is .. that a crucial element
in interpreting any count is detailed knowledge of what happens at the point
of classifying and recording.'
That knowledge often only belongs to the statistician in the locality who is
in fairly direct contact with what is happening at the point of recording.
It does not belong the National Statistician.
Ray Thomas
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
*******************************************************
|