Apologies for cross-posting.
Comment on the labour market statistics has centred on the continuing fall
in headline claimant counts.
Nobody mentions the register effect of New Deals.
In November 2002, 6,578 long-term JSA claimants left the count to go to
government-supported training - New Deal options and Work-based learning for
adults. Long-term here is 18-24 six months plus (New Deal group) and 25+ one
year plus - (enhanced from New Deal eligibility because of 18 months out of
past 21 months eligibility rule).
Over the last six months, 42,831 long-term JSA claimants have left the count
to go to government-supported training. Six months is the length of New Deal
options (25+ IAP).
These figures were loaded on NOMIS this morning.
Without taking seasonal adjustment into account, it seems as though all the
fall in the claimant count is due to register effect. Over the six months,
claiamnt count has fallen by 16,900 whereas there were 42,831 signoffs due
to register effects of programmes such as New Deal.
This factor seems to me to be fundamental to any analysis of the different
patterns of ILO unemployment and the claimant count.
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Paul Bivand
Head of Research
Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion
Camelford House, 3rd Floor,
89 Albert Embankment, London SE1 7TP
Direct Line 020 7840 8335
www.cesi.org.uk)
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