At 07:29 AM 7/24/01 -0600, you wrote:
>Here is an article about NASA's new super computer. It suggest that issues
>about climate change will be resolved through the use of models. I post this
>to raise the EE issue of the use of models in environmental science. I've
>always been dubious about the use of models by ecologists in place of actual
>evidence. I think that the use of models in ecology is similar to the use of
>correlation in economics. Both are substitutes for "real" science in the
>sense that they rely on a certain type of faith. Anyway, things have been
>quite, so I thought I'd stir the pot.
>
>http://www.enn.com/news/enn-stories/2001/07/07232001/supercomputer_44384.asp
>?site=email
>
>Steven
>
If you read the scientists rather than the reporter, they are much more
sober in their assessments. A factor of ten increase in computing power
will undoubtedly help, but the uncertainty in the basic science will still
make exact climate prediction impossible.
My hope is that the scientists will use some of the increased power to run
'ensemble' forecasts with slightly different initial conditions, as they do
in weather forecasting, to see which predictions are robust, and which are
fragile.
Chris
Chris Hope, Judge Institute of Management Studies,
University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1AG, UK.
Voice: +44 1223 338194. Fax: +44 1223 339701
e-mail: [log in to unmask]
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