I agree (of course), but my concern over the ethical use of models remains.
You often see atmospheric scientists being quoted (and I agree that
reporters are probably more to blame than the scientists) that there is
"new" evidence for global warming because their models are more precise. I
think that a 10 fold increase in computing power is just that, it does
little or nothing in so far as the physical evidence for or against global
warming. I think the ethical problem is allowing the perception that
increase precision is the same as increased evidence.

Steven

-----Original Message-----
From: Discussion forum for environmental ethics.
[mailto:[log in to unmask]]On Behalf Of Chris Hope
Sent: Tuesday, July 24, 2001 8:34 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: climate change and models


At 07:29 AM 7/24/01 -0600, you wrote:
>Here is an article about NASA's new super computer. It suggest that issues
>about climate change will be resolved through the use of models. I post
this
>to raise the EE issue of the use of models in environmental science. I've
>always been dubious about the use of models by ecologists in place of
actual
>evidence. I think that the use of models in ecology is similar to the use
of
>correlation in economics. Both are substitutes for "real" science in the
>sense that they rely on a certain type of faith. Anyway, things have been
>quite, so I thought I'd stir the pot.
>
>http://www.enn.com/news/enn-stories/2001/07/07232001/supercomputer_44384.as
p
>?site=email
>
>Steven
>

If you read the scientists rather than the reporter, they are much more
sober in their assessments. A factor of ten increase in computing power
will undoubtedly help, but the uncertainty in the basic science will still
make exact climate prediction impossible.

My hope is that the scientists will use some of the increased power to run
'ensemble' forecasts with slightly different initial conditions, as they do
in weather forecasting, to see which predictions are robust, and which are
fragile.

Chris



Chris Hope, Judge Institute of Management Studies,
University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1AG, UK.
Voice: +44 1223 338194.   Fax: +44 1223 339701
e-mail: [log in to unmask]