>is there any research on how good clinicians are at estimating these
>things based on experience?
Yes- there is quite a lot of evidence that we are not always good at
guestimating...
e.g. Roy Poses has studied this topic on
1 Physicians' survival predictions for patients with acute congestive heart
failure
2 prognostics for critically ill patients
3 and probability estimates for sore throat
When using the Fagan nomogram- I have tried to consider a best and worst
estimate for pretest probs, with the resulting post-test prob range. The
Fagan nomogram may otherwise give you a pseudoexact calc of the post-test
prob if you use only one guestimate....
Atle
Atle Klovning, MD, Research Fellow,
Specialist in General Practice/Family Medicine
Div. for General Practice,
University of Bergen, Norway
(+47) 55 58 67 09
(+47) 55 58 67 10 (FAX)
http://www.uib.no/isf/people/atle/
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