Friends,
Ursula’s important comment should not go without a vital statement: the facts that she presents are reasonable, and the links she offers will give you useful information.
Does it really matter whether or not we heed these facts? Perhaps that is a matter of opinion. But the facts are significant. I have read much of the material she mentions — the University of Stockholm Resilience Center is particularly significant. Johann Rockström and his colleagues are optimists. Others are less optimistic. For example, consider Stephen Emmett’s book, Ten Billion at Amazon.co.uk:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ten-Billion-Stephen-Emmott/dp/0141976322/
or at Amazon.com
https://www.amazon.com/Ten-Billion-Stephen-Emmott/dp/0345806476/
If you are not aware of the serious dangers we face, you should be. Whether you wish to do anything about it or not is an interesting question. One of the scientists who has been deeply concerned about catastrophic climate change was asked recently whether he has stopped flying to reduce his carbon footprint. His answer was, “No.” When he was asked why not, he stated that it is now too late to make a difference.
A distinguished physicist and engineer friend for whom I once worked was once talking at dinner about his days as a post-doc in Germany. He said that his mentor was deeply concerned even then — in the 1970s — about the relationship between certain elements in the atmosphere and the risk of catastrophic climate change. My friend said to him, “But seriously — you are talking about a factor that is so small that we can’t measure it.” His mentor said, “By the time we can measure it, it will be too late.”
I was deeply moved and saddened by a novel recently written by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway. The wrote a novel in a way that would allow people to envision the world we are about to enter. Everything in this book is real, based on facts — the only completely fictional element is the invention of a new biological life form that saves our planetary civilizations to bring about a relatively happy ending.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Collapse-Western-Civilization-View-Future/dp/023116954X/
https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Western-Civilization-View-Future/dp/023116954X/
Some of the notes in these threads on sustainability have been quite right. For example, Don’s note on the term “hackers,” and some of the issues brought up by people that quite reasonably point out the need for many kinds of products and services, and different kinds of design work.
At the end of the day, this won’t likely make a big difference to me. I live four or five meters above sea level on the Baltic coast of southern Sweden. Sweden is one of the nations that is already making plans for catastrophic climate change. Since I expect to live another 20 to 25 years, I will probably miss the worst of it.
The cemetery where I will be buried is about 50 meters from my house. My wife and I are happy that our grave site has an ocean view. Those who want to visit us a few decades after we are gone may need a boat to reach the spot.
What we can do is a matter of opinion. What we should do is a matter of opinion. We do not know with certainty whether scientific warnings are reasonable. Nevertheless, it seems to me that there is merit to much of what I read.
One thing is clear: we do not have 6 planets, not even 4. This is it. When I was young, I thought it would be possible to leave the world better than it was when I arrived. I was still hopeful when I was at university — I graduated around the time of the first Earth Day. I am painfully aware today that the planet will not be better when I leave it — and even more sad that I can no longer imagine what to do about it.
With regret,
Ken
No sig on this post: I speak for myself as an uncomfortable human being.
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