Extinction happens.
If we become extinct, then that's evolution doing its thing.
If we survive, then that's also evolution doing its thing.
Most people feel bad, if not terrible, at the prospect of human extinction.
The reason they will feel that way is itself the result of evolution - the
"survival instinct."
This instinct developed long before our apparently unique reasoning
capabilities. Instincts worked well locally and in the near-term, and that
was good enough. Natural selection did the rest. Reasoning, however, lets
us perceive broader, wider, and longer-term trends. This longer/broader
perspective is often in conflict with instinct's shorter/narrower range. We
can now show that the shorter/narrower perspective of instinct very often
leads to long-term catastrophe.
Reasoning will - in the long-term - always be more utilitarian than
primitive instinct. Our instincts can tell us *what* to do: survive. But
it's our reasoning that will tell us *how* to improve the odds of actually
achieving that goal... "sustainably." We are on the verge of becoming a
species that depends instinctively on reason. It will be good when we
complete that transition.
Reason, evidence-based decision-making, and education will save us - if we
let it.
Or, we can let the Donald Drumpfs of the world tell us what to do, and
knee-jerk ourselves into oblivion.
Either way, evolution will do its thing.
...Oh, and Ken - I wouldn't quite lose hope yet. Sea level rise is a weird
thing: if both north and south polar ice caps melt, or if only the north
cap melts, then sea levels in the high north will likely go DOWN. If only
southern ice melts, then sea levels in the high north will increase
noticeably. That's better than 50/50 odds in your favour.
\V/_ /fas
*Prof. Filippo A. Salustri, Ph.D., P.Eng.*
Email: [log in to unmask]
Web: http://deseng.ryerson.ca/~fil/
ORCID: 0000-0002-3689-5112 <http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3689-5112>
"Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana."
On 12 July 2016 at 17:39, Ken Friedman <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:
> Friends,
>
> Ursula’s important comment should not go without a vital statement: the
> facts that she presents are reasonable, and the links she offers will give
> you useful information.
>
> Does it really matter whether or not we heed these facts? Perhaps that is
> a matter of opinion. But the facts are significant. I have read much of the
> material she mentions — the University of Stockholm Resilience Center is
> particularly significant. Johann Rockström and his colleagues are
> optimists. Others are less optimistic. For example, consider Stephen
> Emmett’s book, Ten Billion at Amazon.co.uk:
>
> https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ten-Billion-Stephen-Emmott/dp/0141976322/
>
> or at Amazon.com
>
> https://www.amazon.com/Ten-Billion-Stephen-Emmott/dp/0345806476/
>
> If you are not aware of the serious dangers we face, you should be.
> Whether you wish to do anything about it or not is an interesting question.
> One of the scientists who has been deeply concerned about catastrophic
> climate change was asked recently whether he has stopped flying to reduce
> his carbon footprint. His answer was, “No.” When he was asked why not, he
> stated that it is now too late to make a difference.
>
> A distinguished physicist and engineer friend for whom I once worked was
> once talking at dinner about his days as a post-doc in Germany. He said
> that his mentor was deeply concerned even then — in the 1970s — about the
> relationship between certain elements in the atmosphere and the risk of
> catastrophic climate change. My friend said to him, “But seriously — you
> are talking about a factor that is so small that we can’t measure it.” His
> mentor said, “By the time we can measure it, it will be too late.”
>
> I was deeply moved and saddened by a novel recently written by Naomi
> Oreskes and Erik Conway. The wrote a novel in a way that would allow people
> to envision the world we are about to enter. Everything in this book is
> real, based on facts — the only completely fictional element is the
> invention of a new biological life form that saves our planetary
> civilizations to bring about a relatively happy ending.
>
>
> https://www.amazon.co.uk/Collapse-Western-Civilization-View-Future/dp/023116954X/
>
>
> https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Western-Civilization-View-Future/dp/023116954X/
>
> Some of the notes in these threads on sustainability have been quite
> right. For example, Don’s note on the term “hackers,” and some of the
> issues brought up by people that quite reasonably point out the need for
> many kinds of products and services, and different kinds of design work.
>
> At the end of the day, this won’t likely make a big difference to me. I
> live four or five meters above sea level on the Baltic coast of southern
> Sweden. Sweden is one of the nations that is already making plans for
> catastrophic climate change. Since I expect to live another 20 to 25 years,
> I will probably miss the worst of it.
>
> The cemetery where I will be buried is about 50 meters from my house. My
> wife and I are happy that our grave site has an ocean view. Those who want
> to visit us a few decades after we are gone may need a boat to reach the
> spot.
>
> What we can do is a matter of opinion. What we should do is a matter of
> opinion. We do not know with certainty whether scientific warnings are
> reasonable. Nevertheless, it seems to me that there is merit to much of
> what I read.
>
> One thing is clear: we do not have 6 planets, not even 4. This is it. When
> I was young, I thought it would be possible to leave the world better than
> it was when I arrived. I was still hopeful when I was at university — I
> graduated around the time of the first Earth Day. I am painfully aware
> today that the planet will not be better when I leave it — and even more
> sad that I can no longer imagine what to do about it.
>
> With regret,
>
> Ken
>
> No sig on this post: I speak for myself as an uncomfortable human being.
>
> --
>
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