Dear Gunnar and Martin,
It is with surprise that I find myself repeatedly mentioned in a thread to which I have posted nothing.
I inferred from Terry’s post that 1) I do not expect reasoning to be solid, 2) I am incapable of solid reasoning, and 3) I depend on associative thinking and rhetoric. I wrote Terry off-list asking why he chose to comment on my reasoning skills in this thread.
Terry assured me that it is appropriate that he do so, but he stated that his intentions are lighthearted, and that he writes “tongue in cheek.”
Martin is quite right to note that statistics on employment in many design fields are problematic owing to the fact that so many people in all creative industry sectors are self-employed. This is also true of many consultants. And it is true of nearly everyone who builds an entrepreneurial firm that is self-owned, at least until it is incorporated and routinised. When I was a millionaire entrepreneur in the early 1980s, I was invisible to employment statistics because I was self-employed. My millions lasted for about twenty minutes, mostly on paper, but I was self-employed for many years before and after. In fact, I did not show up on employment rolls until 1994 when I got my first job with a regular pay check in Norway.
But let's forget the “two men enter, one man leaves” theme. I don’t plan on visiting Bartertown any time soon. Castlemaine, Victoria, is more my speed – a few nights in the Garden Room at the Empyre Hotel, dinner at the Public Inn or perhaps The Good Table. A man, his Swedish wife, and their Danish poodle enter. All three leave, slightly the better for their experience.
According to the Mad Max sequence, the first film was set “in the near future” of the 1979 original. Beyond Thunderdome was set a few years later. With the “near future” on the kind of ten-year horizon Terry describes or perhaps twenty years, that would put Bartertown sometime around now. It seems that even 30-year predictions are difficult to make.
A quote attributed to Niels Bohr is that “it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” It is true, though Bohr did not say it, at least not first. The quote seems to appear first in a book by Karl Kristian Steincke, a Danish member of parliament who served as justice minister in the 1920s, then again in the 1930s, and briefly in the 1950s. It is also attributed to the great baseball catcher, coach, and manager Yogi Berra. But as Yogi said, “I really didn’t say everything I said.” Whoever said it, predictions really are difficult – especially about the future.
Before I trust predictions about the near future – let alone anything in 2043 – I prefer evidence to show that the person making predictions can manage an accurate analysis of the present. And I want to understand the basis and methods of the analysis or the predictions.
Appealing to the future is always handy for those whom the present may not support. For example, George Bush and Dick Cheney proclaimed that history would justify their actions in Iraq.
But I may be out of my depth here. I have avoided this thread due to the extraordinary demand it would place on my reasoning. As you and Martin note, this thread involves a great many statistics, and I have been declared incapable of solid reasoning.
At any rate, a Bartertown victory would be meaningless for me. My dog Freddy won’t let me go to Malibu, and he certainly won’t let me insult anyone. Freddy believes in respect, civil behavior, and a straight bat.
Merry Christmas … and a prosperous 2014 to all designers, whatever their persuasion, discipline, or domain.
Ken
Ken Friedman, PhD, DSc (hc), FDRS | University Distinguished Professor | Swinburne University of Technology | Melbourne, Australia | [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]> | Mobile +61 404 830 462 | Home Page http://www.swinburne.edu.au/design/people/Professor-Ken-Friedman-ID22.html<http://www.swinburne.edu.au/design> Academia Page http://swinburne.academia.edu/KenFriedman About Me Page http://about.me/ken_friedman
Guest Professor | College of Design and Innovation | Tongji University | Shanghai, China
--
Gunnar Swanson wrote (starting with a quote from Terry Love):
--snip--
> In contrast to Ken's position,
> however, I expect reasoning to be solid and referencing to others work
Luckily, the two of you reside in Australia. My impression is that between you and north is the location of Bartertown and a giant cage presided over by Tina Turner. Two men enter. One man leaves. Whoever comes out alive gets to go on to insult cops in Malibu.
—snip—
Martin Salisbury wrote:
—snip—
If this is a ‘straight bat’, Terry, I would venture to suggest that it is about as straight as the bats of the current England cricket team, whose hapless exploits within your shores you will be familiar with. Let’s have a bit of honesty about these irrational, old fashioned attacks on ‘creativity’ and the Art & Design sector, rather than hiding behind bogus, spurious statistics.
—snip—
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