On Dec 18, 2012, at 9:00 PM, Ken Friedman wrote [quoting Varian]:
> “And that’s what you should do: keep at it till it gets simple. The whole point of a model is to give a simplified representation of reality.
The good reason to go for a simple map is not to make the ghosts of Frank Stella and William of Occam happy. Complicated models are usually not accurate even though the reality they attempt to mimic may be. As Nate Silver points out, complicated models are generally complicated because they are mapping more noise than signal. [The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't]
Gunnar
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Gunnar Swanson
East Carolina University
graphic design program
http://www.ecu.edu/cs-cfac/soad/graphic/index.cfm
Gunnar Swanson Design Office
1901 East 6th Street
Greenville NC 27858
USA
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+1 252 258 7006
http://www.gunnarswanson.com
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