Stefan,
I'm an engineer. I know about the power of statistics and uncertainty. And
my doctorate was on the use of logic in design.
There's two immediately evident issues here:
* Just how robust are the actual calculations of the probabilities? As far
as I know, the probability of death by nuclear accident based on extant
examples is pretty much zero.
* There are many other forces (economic, political, etc) at work in a real
situation that your logic would have to accommodate to help one arrive at a
sound conclusion. No one does that kind of logic. I'm not even sure it
would be tractable with known methods for a case as complex as Fukushima.
The problem with basic logic is that it's basic. It doesn't handle the
complexity of the situation.
Cheers.
Fil
On 17 March 2011 07:15, Stefan Holmlid <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Well. Time for some maths; or at least basic logic.
>
> 1) If a nuclear accident is more unlikely than the events we've just
> witnessed, the precautions taken should be based on the likelihood of these
> events and their effects
> (notice that we are not talking about _possible_ effects; when the water
> floods land physics (fluid mechanics) will tell us where it will flow).
>
> 2) If a nuclear accident is a little less unlikely than the events we've
> just witnessed, what would logic tell us would be the rational decisions to
> make about precautions?
>
> 3) If a nuclear accident is much more likely than the events we've just
> witnessed, what would logic tell is would be the rational decisions to make
> about precautions?
>
> NOTE: we also know the effects of nuclear accidents.
>
>
> /Stefan
>
> --------------
> Stefan Holmlid, associate prof Interaction & Service Design
> E: [log in to unmask] | P: +46 13 285633
> W: http://www.ida.liu.se/~ixs/ | T: @shlmld
> A: IDA, Linköping University, 581 83 LINKÖPING
>
>
--
Filippo A. Salustri, Ph.D., P.Eng.
Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Ryerson University
350 Victoria St, Toronto, ON
M5B 2K3, Canada
Tel: 416/979-5000 ext 7749
Fax: 416/979-5265
Email: [log in to unmask]
http://deseng.ryerson.ca/~fil/
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