The piece is written in a very confusing way. Lower down in the web version
it says in effect that '80 per cent of the serious crimes committed by
those released from prison and subject to supervision orders are committed
by the 30,000 level-one violent and sexual offenders, who receive little
supervision'. But we are not told how many crimes of what sort are
committed 'by those released from prison and subject to supervision
orders'. If it's only 1,000 low-level crimes there is certainly no cause
for alarmist headlines (and what about those not subject to supervision
orders?).
But your point about rates of recidivism between full-termers and early
release prisoners is right - Jamie Doward has missed the point entirely. by
not addressing the key question 'Who is more likely to re-offend, early
release or full-termers?'
We can always clear this up by looking at the Home Office report - but I
wonder how many Observer readers will do so - or, indeed, what conclusions
they will have drawn from this article?
Robert
--On 29 January 2006 09:38 +0000 Ted Harding <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:
> Hi Folks,
>
> I'm confused by the Press again!
>
> "Thousands freed from jail early will reoffend
>
> The murder of a Chelsea banker by a 'low-risk'
> released convict was a tragedy waiting to happen:
> 80 per cent of criminals let out before time will
> break the law again
>
> Jamie Doward, home affairs editor
> Sunday January 29, 2006
> The Observer"
>
> [ http://tinyurl.com/9c88m ]
>
> Seems clear enough, but I thought there was an interesting
> implicit comparison in there, so I scoured the article for
> information about the percntage of those released after
> serving their due term, thus not released early, who would
> "break the law again". (After all, early release implies
> an assessment of being relatively unlikely to offend, as
> compared with those who serve their full term who would
> not have been so assessed and may therefore, a priori, be
> considered as more likely to re-offend once released but
> who, of course (in general) must be released once their
> time is up; so you'd expect these to be even more likey
> to re-offend, perhaps ... ).
>
> Nothing that I could find.
>
> So first question: Did Home Offive analysis (on which the
> article claims to be based) not consider this comparison?
> Or did the journalist not bother to report it?
>
> However, further down the article is a passage:
>
> "But 30,000 level-one violent and sexual offenders
> receive little supervision other than meetings with
> probation officers. The Observer understands that a
> Home Office analysis has found that these offenders
> are responsible for 80 per cent of the serious crimes
> committed by those released from prison and subject
> to supervision orders."
>
> which suggests that the journalist may have got hold of
> the wrong end of the stick in the first place, in the
> opening assertion (at head of this mail).
>
> Oh dear, I'm so puzzled and confused!
>
> Best wishes to all,
> Ted.
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> E-Mail: (Ted Harding) <[log in to unmask]>
> Fax-to-email: +44 (0)870 094 0861
> Date: 29-Jan-06 Time: 09:38:33
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