Hi Folks,
Sorry if you consider this may be a bit off-topic, being
closer to evidence based criminal justice than evidence
based health (unless you consider that criminal justice
can damage your health).
I'm referring to an article published in the Independent
(UK) last Saturday (10 April) written by Jeremy Laurance
(Health Editor) and apparently based on an interview with
Prof. Rochard Southall in which he defends Prof Sir Roy
Meadow in relation to Munchausen's Syndrome by Proxy and
parental culpability in Sudden Infant Death.
If you want to look at it on-line, it is at
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/legal/story.jsp?story=510194
My question concerns a reference cited, in the quotation:
"Sir Roy had been criticised for telling the court that the
chances of two cot deaths occurring by chance in the same
family were one in 73 million, a remark later dismissed by
the Appeal Court in the Cannings case as "wholly erroneous".
But Professor Southall said the statistic was not calculated
by Sir Roy, as widely thought, but came from a government
report, The Confidential Enquiry into Sudden Unexpected Deaths
in Infancy 1993-96, published by the Stationery Office."
In searching for
"Confidential Enquiry into Sudden Unexpected Deaths in Infancy"
I come up with nothing (except this Independent story).
The appeal judgment in the Sally Clark case included:
"The prosecution also relied on statistics given by Professor
Meadow and drawn from a draft report by the Confidential Enquiry
into Stillbirths and Deaths in Infancy (CESDI), in particular
that the probability of two SIDS deaths in one family matching
the profile of the appellant were 1 in 73 million."
and indeed according to www.cesdi.org CESDI was, until 1 April 2003,
"The Confidential Enquiry into Stillbirths and Deaths in Infancy (CESDI)"
(now "The Confidential Enquiry into Maternal And Child Health (CEMACH)",
at http://www.cemach.org.uk ).
In their on-line reports, however, I do not seem able to locate
any reference to "one in 73 million" or the like.
On the other hand, there is also, at the Stationery Office OnLine
( http://www.tso-online.co.uk ) the following:
2nd February 2000
Sudden unexpected deaths in infancy the CESDI-SUDI studies 1993-1996
Publisher: Stationery Office
Author: Great Britain Confidential Enquiry into Stillbirths
and Deaths in Infancy
which does seem to fit the bill. Unfortunately I don't have direct
access to a copy of this; and it may well not be the "draft report
by the Confidential Enquiry into Stillbirths and Deaths in Infancy
(CESDI)" referred to in the judgment since CESDI (as an author) is
an agency which may have published many other things.
SO, finally, my questions: Would someone who knows (or can easily
find out) please put me out of my misery as to where this "statistic"
(of 1 in 73 million) was published? Was it in a "draft report" only,
or did it get finally published? And, indeed, was it initially
due to an opinion of CESDI? And, if so, who provided them with this
opinion?
With thanks, and apologies for the length of this and for any
appearance of being confused (for which my excuse is that the whole
business of these references and attributions is confusing).
Best wishes to all,
Ted.
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E-Mail: (Ted Harding) <[log in to unmask]>
Fax-to-email: +44 (0)870 167 1972
Date: 14-Apr-04 Time: 12:13:20
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