It isn't only the relation between correlation and causation that needs to be understood. There must also be understanding between epistemological and ontological uncertainty. In the former, more data may help, while, in the latter, that won't help. It also needs to be understood that not all data is equal -- more is not necessarily better.
There was a humorous take on the correlation-causation issue in xkcd a while back. I have attached it for those who refuse to use html for their message format.
-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of John Veit-Wilson
Sent: 13 November 2017 12:50
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Seeking an author on the statistics of climate change
A lot of ordinary people don't grasp the differences between correlations, causes and consequences. Being able to do so is critical for an understanding of lots of topical statistics and climate change in particular. Presumably whoever writes about this will also explain such epistemological matters and not only the vast mass of statistics which in themselves can't compensate for the misunderstandings and misrepresentations which the book aims to dispel.
This is a major problem in the social policy inequalities field with which I'm familiar. A vast global industry has been busy for decades accumulating statistics of inequalities and poverties without apparent effect on sufficient public understanding to induce political action. If understanding and change is the goal of the book, you may need to look for more than simply a very well informed climate change statistician. Intelligent journalistic skills might be useful too.
John VW.
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From Professor John Veit-Wilson
Newcastle University GPS -- Sociology
Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, England.
Tel: 0044[0]191-208 7498
email [log in to unmask]
www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/j.veit-wilson/
-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of humphrey
Sent: 10 November 2017 13:05
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Seeking an author on the statistics of climate change
As many Radstats members know, an editorial group which now consists of Jeff Evans, Sally Ruane and myself is working on a new book designed to be a direct successor tp "Demystifying Social Statistics” (1979) and “Statistics in Society” (1998). We now have a contract with Policy Press, and the fairly firm title “Data in Society”.
While much of “Statistics in Society” was about British social issues and British official statistics, we are trying to take a somewhat broader approach, reflecting the rise of “big data”, and the systematic exploitation of very large commercial datasets,
We also feel, very strongly, that in many ways the biggest and most important statistical story of our times is about climate change, and how a vast mass of quantitative data has been obfuscated by deniers. The obvious problem is that most of the people with detailed knowledge of this are physical scientists while most Radstats members are social scientists and/or involved in social policy.
Would the exceptions please step forward?
We REALLY need your help. The need is for a short survey of c. 4,000 words, so you don’t need to be a climate scientist, just a statistician who has taken an interest in the statistics of climate change. We do have some more specific ideas about how this could be taken forward, but are also happy to follow the lead of someone more expert.
We look forward to hearing from you.
Humphrey Southall
Professor of Historical Geography/
Director, GB Historical GIS
University of Portsmouth
Geography Dept, Buckingham Bldg,
Lion Terrace, Portsmouth PO1 3HE, UK
[log in to unmask]
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