Dear all
There's a background note:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/263660/spa-background-note-051213_tpf_final.pdf
It refers to 'cohort life expectancy' tables.
Think this needs the demographic experts to say whether they are banking continuation of rising life expectancy trends.
Paul
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-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Ted Harding
Sent: 06 December 2013 09:52
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: "One third of life"
Greetings All,
I am a little intrigued by the apparent principle on which the change in State Pension age is to be based. According to Press reports:
"We think a fair principle is that, as now, people should
expect to spend up to a third of their adult life in
retirement," George Osborne told MPs.
"Based on latest life expectancy figures, applying that
principle would mean an increase in the state pension age
to 68 in the mid-2030s and to 69 in the late 2040s."
Even now, with the retirement age at 65, and assuming that adult life starts at 20, that is 45 years or working life. Taking that to be 2/3 of the total adult life, then 1/3 is (rounding down)
22 years, so "total" adult life would be 67 years, implying that "total" life would be 20 + 67 = 87 years.
When the retirement age eventually rises to 68, the same calculation indicates that "total" life would be 20 + 48 + 24 = 92 years.
Without having looked up the current life tables myself, this makes me wonder what percentile of the lifetime distribution is being used as the "cut-off" for "adult life".
According to ONS reports for Life Expectancy, the L.E. for England and Wales 2010-2012 is 79.0 for a new-born boy and 82.8 for a new-born girl. These are respectively 8.0 and 4.2 years short of the 87 years calculated using the current retirement age of 65.
On the other hand, when you reach 65 the expectancies are 18.3 and
20.9 for men and women respectively, corresponding to exdected ages at death of 83.3 and 85.9, still short of the rounded-down 87.
Possibly an appropriate baseline would be the life expectancy at the start of adult life (age 20), when the expectancies would be distinctly lower than 83.5 and 85.9.
I'm wondering just how to reconcile all this ... !
Best wishes to all,
Ted.
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E-Mail: (Ted Harding) <[log in to unmask]>
Date: 06-Dec-2013 Time: 09:51:41
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