>> If "making a point" is the first choice of a majority, this may well happen
>> under FPTP as well. Particularly in constituencies with supposedly "safe
>> seats" why shouldn't they "make a point" if they think that voting for
>> their true favourite won't make a difference anyway? It may even happen
>> more easily, because under AV you need 50%, including
>> later preferences.
>
> True - and that obviously happens. However, I still think it could become a
> much more prevalent practice with AV, since some voters would believe that
> they could 'make their point' (in relation to a candidate they didn't really
> want to win) and STILL be able to have an influence on who actually won,
> whereas with FPTP they would have to forego that latter opportunity (relying
> on not to many others doing the same as them) if they wanted to do that
> 'making a point'.
May be, though it is very unlikely that this gives 50% or more to the
same party that people actually don't want. (As the French example shows,
it may get an outsider on second place with 18% or so, but winning is a
different story.)
Overall, regarding this particular aspect, I'd see AV and FPTP on a
par; your argument may count against AV, but it's still more difficult
for an extremist group to collect 50% finally than what is often
needed in FPTP to win. And at the end of the day, if you vote for
something as first choice, you shouldn't complain if this person wins.
Best regards,
Christian
*** --- ***
Christian Hennig
University College London, Department of Statistical Science
Gower St., London WC1E 6BT, phone +44 207 679 1698
[log in to unmask], www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucakche
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