FYI
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-----Original Message-----
From: Maps, Air Photo & Geospatial Systems Forum
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Angie Cope
Sent: 16 January 2008 14:27
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: NOAA: Forthcoming Solar Cycle Could Disrupt GPS & ATMs
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: NOAA: Forthcoming Solar Cycle Could Disrupt GPS & ATMs
Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2008 03:41:01 +0000
From: Brendan Whyte <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
From NOAA via "GIM International" newsletter:
http://www.gim-international.com/news/id2773-NOAA_Forthcoming_Solar_Cycl
e_Could_Disrupt_GPS,_Communications.html
Source: NOAA Website: http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA: Forthcoming Solar Cycle Could Disrupt GPS, Communications
10/01/2008
A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it
increased risks for military and civilian communications, including GPS
signals, showed signs it was on it its way with the appearance of the
cycle's first sunspot, NOAA scientists said.
The sunspot appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, according to the
U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). "This
sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist Douglas
Biesecker of Nova's Space Weather Prediction Center. "In this case, it's
an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next
few years."
A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the
surface of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called solar cycle 24, is
expected to build gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar
storms reaching a maximum by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can
occur at any time, according to NOAA.
During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may
head toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical
communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms
can also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp GPS
signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell phone or getting
money from an ATM could suddenly halt over a large part of the globe,
NOAA warned.
"Our growing dependence on highly sophisticated, space-based
technologies means we are far more vulnerable to space weather today
than in the past," said Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr.,
undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA
administrator. "[NOAA's] space weather monitoring and forecasts are
critical for the nation's ability to function smoothly during solar
disturbances."
Last April, in coordination with an international panel of solar
experts, NOAA issued a forecast that solar cycle 24 would start in March
2008, plus or minus six months. The panel was evenly split between those
predicting a strong or weak cycle. Both camps agree that the sooner the
new cycle takes over the waning previous cycle, the more likely that it
will be a strong season with many sunspots and major storms, said
Biesecker. Many more sunspots with solar cycle 24 traits must emerge
before scientists consider the new cycle dominant, with the potential
for more frequent storms, NOAA said.
The new sunspot, identified as #10,981, is the latest visible spot to
appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its
high-latitude location at 27 degrees North, and its negative polarity
leading to the right in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a
new solar cycle, according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and
sunspots of a new solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those
from the previous cycle continue to form closer to the equator.
Brendan Whyte
Thailand
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