I'm told that there is no means of measuring the speed of light
independently of the method of measurement.
It is a bit surprising therefore to see the ONS claim in a Press Release
today that the 2001 Census understimated the numbers in employment and
overestimated the numbers in unemployment. The source for this
declaration is a sample survey, the Labour Force Survey, that is largely
conducted by telephone interview, often by proxy, and whose results depend
upon blowing up the sample size by estimates of total population based upon
the very census statistics that are being castigated.
Is not this a case of a dog chasing its own tail? Who can say whether the
head bites the tail or whether the tail wags itself into the dog's mouth?
Or indeed whether the a bit actually happens?
Isn't it time that the ONS started being scientific by acknowledging that
the Labour Force Survey does not have a special alliance with Appolo, the
Greek God of Truth, or our own good Lord who often claims a monopoly in the
area?
Surely it would be widely recognised in any truly scientific community that
the measurement of large human populations is even more dependent upon the
method of measurement that the measurement of phenomena of the physical
world? If so why in the ONS damaging the status of official statistics
and reputation of statisticians by producing such a ludicrously worded Press
Releases?
What about the million men missing from the Census? What about the
longstanding failure of the LFS to count the number of claimant unemployed?
What about the response rate of the LFS itself that is well below that of
the Census statistics.
A paragraph from the Press Release is given below.
Ray Thomas
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The LFS found 640,000 more people in employment than did the
Census but 203,000 fewer unemployed people. This was very much in
line with ONS predictions made before the publication of the Census,
which expected that the Census would underestimate employment by
0.5 to 1.0 million and overestimate UK unemployment by 100,000 to
250,000. This is due to the self-completion nature of the Census which
does not permit the International Labour Organisation definitions of
employment and unemployment to be applied as rigorously as they are
in the LFS.
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