On 07-Mar-05 Ted Harding wrote:
> Thanks to a private communication from David Boyle,
> I was eventually led to
>
> http://www.dh.gov.uk/PublicationsAndStatistics/Publications/
> PublicationsStatistics/PublicationsStatisticsArticle/fs/
> en?CONTENT_ID=4085951&chk=HBt2QD
>
> which it seems was released this morning, and this in turn
> led to a PDF file of numbers and rates for the different
> Trusts for 2001-4 by 6-monthly intervals:
>
> http://www.dh.gov.uk/assetRoot/04/10/55/18/04105518.pdf
>
> Though not in an ideal format for analysis (it would have
> been helpful if the actual numbers of bed-days had been
> given, instead of having to be inferred from numbers/rates)
> the latter should be worth a look.
>
> In particular, the politicians are flaunting the reduction
> in total numbers, whereas a more meaningful figure (with
> respect to their claims) could be the change in overall rates.
>
> I haven't done this analysis yet ... (it involves cut&paste
> from a PDF file, and more).
Well, I've now done this file manipulation (I hope correctly)
for the General Acute Trusts at the beginning of this dataset.
Using a crude (Sum(cases))/(Sum(cases/rate)) I get (as returned
from the software):
Apr2001-Sep2001: 0.1368885
Apr2002-Sep2002: 0.1430201
Apr2003-Sep2003: 0.1494563
Apr2004-Sep2004: 0.1490701
Oct2001-Mar2002: 0.1417535
Oct2002-Mar2003: 0.1611403
Oct2003-Mar2004: 0.1641550
(The rates, of cases per 1000 bed-days, are given to only 2dp.
A "case" is a recorded case of MRSA bacteriaemia, i.e.
detection of the bacterium in a blood sample, for which there
is mandatory reporting. As the HPA website points out, this is
not the same as the number of MRSA infections.)
As Alison pointed out, there is a difference to be expected
between Summer and Winter periods.
From the above calculations, it is clear that Winter rates
have not decreased, and Summer rates have decreased only in
the 4th decimal place -- and the data to hand are not precise
enough for this to be meaningful.
There are also data in the PDF report for Specialist and
Single Speciality Trusts, which would have been included in
the Government's announced totals today.
I haven't looked at these yet (nor will be able to today).
Anyway, I'm not yet brimming with confidence in the DoH's
triumphant announcement that MRSA is on the retreat and
"The lowest numbers since records began"!
Best wishes to all,
Ted.
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Date: 07-Mar-05 Time: 13:16:45
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