>The 1995 data are not a freak finding. What I did not direct you to was the
>table in Miranda Mugford and my book 'Birth counts: statistics of pregnancy
>and childbirth'. This shows that over several decades the age specific
>rates rose with the oldest mothers having the highest rates in each time
>period. Alison
There are no grounds for thinking that the 1995 data are a freak
It is not surprising that historical evidence is consistent with that for
1995.
But the original question raised was the increase in the Caesarian rate of
0.7% in
2003.
I'd hypothesise that Gordon Brown is culpable !!
For several decades rising first marriage rates, and by association rising
Caesarian rates, have been sustained by mortgage companies increasing the
amount they have been willing to lend to families. In the 1960s it was two
and a half times the husband's income, later they were willing to take into
account the wife's part time earnings, then the wife's full-time earnings,
and I think the ratio to family income is now more than two and half. Over
the period since the 1960s couples have increasingly deferred marriage and
child bearing in order to be able to get on to the property ladder.
Under Gordon Brown's stewartship the increase in house prices in 2002-2003
reached new levels in terms of ratio to earnings. But it would not have
been prudent, as Gordon himself might have said, for mortgage companies to
further increase the ratio of lending to family income. So families have
had no choice but to defer child-bearing. Hence the increase in the
Caesarian rate.
One cannot of course say QED about this line of argument. But like all the
best hypotheses it can be disproved. It would be disproved if there were
no increase in the average of age of primiparous mothers between 2002 and
2003.
Can anyone dig out those statistics?
Ray Thomas
35 Passmore, Tinkers Bridge, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
Email: [log in to unmask]
Tel/Fax 01908 679081
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