You should also be aware that drugs licensed successfully in one country may
not be elsewhere, despite being considered via RCTs - John Abraham at Sussex
University has demonstrated this in his work

-----Original Message-----
From: Evidence based health (EBH)
[mailto:[log in to unmask]]On Behalf Of Djulbegovic,
Benjamin
Sent: 21 March 2003 12:27
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Query: successful drugs

to save you some time, accurate assessment of success rate of new,
experimental drugs is not known/available (although what is frequently cited
is that about 25% of all drugs that reach clinical testing eventually become
licensed). We have recently received the NIH funding to obtain more reliable
assessment about success rate of new, innovative treatments. We hope to
present some of our first results at the Cochrane Colloquium in Barcelona.

Benjamin Djulbegovic, MD,PhD
Professor of Oncology and Medicine
H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute
at the University of South Florida
Department of Interdisciplinary Oncology
12902 Magnolia Drive
Tampa, FL 33612

Editor: Cancer Treatment Reviews (Evidence-based Oncology Section)
http://www.harcourt-international.com/journals/ctrv/


e-mail:[log in to unmask]
http://www.hsc.usf.edu/~bdjulbeg/
phone:(813)979-7202
fax:(813)979-3071



-----Original Message-----
From: Laurence Moore Cardiff University [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Friday, March 21, 2003 5:59 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Query: successful drugs


I'm trying to find a figure (and the source or reference from where it
comes) for the proportion of new drugs that successfully get through the
various phases of testing and eventually become licenced. Any ideas of what
this figure might be, or where I could find out, much appreciated.

My reason for asking is that I'm writing a paper to promote RCTs in
educational research, and want to highlight the fact that untested
interventions are more than likely to be unsuccessful interventions, and
that educationalists could learn from the clinical world, where new
interventions (drugs) cannot be implemented (licenced) unless they have
been thoroughly tested.

Many thanks

Laurence Moore
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