Rod Jackson's "Updated New Zealand cardiovascular disease risk-benefit
prediction guide" BMJ 2000;320:709-710 ( 11 March )
http://bmj.com/cgi/content/full/320/7236/709 has the following 5 year NNTs:
Risk level Benefit (1)
Benefit (2)
5 year cardiovascular Cardiovascular events prevented
NNT for 5 years to
risk (non-fatal and fatal) per 100 treated for 5 years*
prevent 1 event*
>30% >10 <10
25-30% 9 11
20-25% 7.5 13
15-20% 6 16
10-15% 4 25
5-10% 2.5 40
2.5-5% 1.25 80
<2.5% <0.8 >120
* Based on a 20% reduction in total cholesterol or a reduction in blood
pressure of 10-15 mm Hg systolic or 5-8 mm Hg diastolic, which reduces risk
of cardiovascular disease by about one third over five years
Gary
_________________________________________________________________________
Gary Jackson, Public Health Physician Counties Manukau District
Health Board
19 Lambie Drive, Manukau City Private Bag 94052, South Auckland
Mail Centre
ph 64-9-262 9535 fax 64-9-262 9501 mobile 025 286 1815
email [log in to unmask]
-----Original Message-----
From: Jon Brassey [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Monday, 9 December 2002 22:31
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: NNT's and Cardiovascular Risk
I'm sure this has been done before - hence posting it here!
We, at ATTRACT, have been asked the following question:
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What are the NNTs for treating high risk IHD patients at variable risks
using Framingham formula
for 15% in 10 years
for 20% in 10 years
for 30% in 10 years
and are there any population studies which could indicate how many patients
would be at these levels of risk?
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I know he hasn't been hugely focussed (for instance which treatment) but I'm
sure you can figure what he means!
So any help...
Best wishes
jon
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