While a grad student (a while ago), I had the opportunity to attend a
lecture by the director of the United Nations Commission on Population and
Development (Universities are such great places). It was a very
enlightening lecture regarding the power of choice with respect to changes
in fertility behaviors. The lecturer showed some really nice multivariate
statistical analyses of data from countries around the world. This data
strongly suggested that there was a strong correlation between the
empowerment of women in a society and the average number of children. Based
on this correlation, it was theorized by the lecturer that official
empowerment of women led to stabilization of population growth in a nation.
It was a very interesting lecture.
Current population growth models in use at the U.N. and elsewhere, from what
I understand, project reduction in population growth as development of a
nation increases - development being primarily technological. The models
show the world population maxing at somewhere between 9 and 10 billion
persons. These models are based on much of the multivariate statistical
analyses of historical data that the lecturer discussed above.
If these models are not completely off-base, then one could conclude that to
reduce the number of children couples choose to have, we need to empower the
women and develop their economies to be at the technological level of
Europe, U.S.A., Canada, Japan, Australasia.
Thus, in the U.S.A, Europe, Canada, Japan, Australasia - from a global
resource depletion perspective, it is in their best interest to provide as
much development assistance as possible to developing nations,
provide strong incentives for investment in manufacturing in those nations,
including removing any tariffs or restrictions on imports from those
nations,
helping those nations with social programs that ultimately change the
status of women in those societies,
helping those nations restructure land use patterns through internal
governmental incentives so that the peasant-farmer becomes the large farm
manager, with most of the peasant farmers migrating to cities to work in the
manufacturing sector.
in essence - export U.S., Canadian, European, and Japanese, and Australasia
economic and societal structures.
Hmmmm. Aren't they already doing that?
(chuckle)
________________________________
Richard Haimann, P.E.
(562) 628-1980
(562) 684-4312 (e-fax)
mailto:[log in to unmask]
http://www.haimann.com
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Discussion forum for environmental ethics.
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]]On Behalf Of Steve
> Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 9:11 AM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: Global Warming Anyone?
>
>
> Beats me Richard, I suppose at least in the U.S. they could start by
> doing away with things like tax deductions for children, earned
> income tac credits, and dependent care reimbursement accounts for
> child care.
>
> This would make having a child more expensive and at least in theory
> reduce the number of children.
>
> Politically it is a non-starter. Imagine telling everybody that
> their taxes are going to go up substantially to reduce the world
> population. My view on this is that people tend not to respond to
> well to abstract goals with intangible benefits.
>
> Steve
>
>
>
> --- Richard Haimann <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> > None yet.
> >
> > My wife wants two. I want one. Two will be our max depending on
> > how the
> > negotiations go. :-) Hence, we may be replacers rather than
> > reducers.
> >
> > If one were to call for rapid population reduction, and lead by
> > example,
> > just what would that leader do? Note the words "rapid" and
> > "reduction."
> >
> > ________________________________
> > Richard Haimann, P.E.
> > (562) 628-1980
> > (562) 684-4312 (e-fax)
> > mailto:[log in to unmask]
> > http://www.haimann.com
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Discussion forum for environmental ethics.
> > > [mailto:[log in to unmask]]On Behalf Of Steve
> > > Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 8:57 AM
> > > To: [log in to unmask]
> > > Subject: Re: Global Warming Anyone?
> > >
> > >
> > > --- Richard Haimann <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> > > > I've always felt that the best leaders were those who led by
> > > > example...
> > >
> > > Thanks Richard. Considering I only have one child and plan on
> > having
> > > only one child, I guess I fit your qualifactions. Thank you for
> > your
> > > endorsement.
> > >
> > > How many kids you got Richard?
> > >
> > > Steve
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > ________________________________
> > > > Richard Haimann, P.E.
> > > > (562) 628-1980
> > > > (562) 684-4312 (e-fax)
> > > > mailto:[log in to unmask]
> > > > http://www.haimann.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: Discussion forum for environmental ethics.
> > > > > [mailto:[log in to unmask]]On Behalf Of brad
> > bartholomew
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 5:53 PM
> > > > > To: [log in to unmask]
> > > > > Subject: Re: Global Warming Anyone?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Steve says: "Yeah, I suppose someday the human race
> > > > > will die out. Seems to one of the lessons one can
> > > > > draw from biology and evolution."
> > > > >
> > > > > I would say that the human race would deserve to die
> > > > > out if we all thought like him.
> > > > >
> > > > > Is he suggesting that we shouldn't try to solve
> > > > > environmental-population problems at all?
> > > > >
> > > > > As to his suggestion that the excptionally hot summer
> > > > > in Australia is just a local problem, it may be of
> > > > > interest to him to know that Antartica is in the
> > > > > Southern hemisphere as well. Quite close to Australia.
> > > > >
> > > > > I don't think his response to my posting was fair, and
> > > > > I don't think it was informed.
> > > > >
> > > > > Brad
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > __________________________________________________
> > > > > Do You Yahoo!?
> > > > > Yahoo! Movies - coverage of the 74th Academy Awards.
> > > > > http://movies.yahoo.com/
> > >
> > >
> > > __________________________________________________
> > > Do You Yahoo!?
> > > Yahoo! Movies - coverage of the 74th Academy Awards.
> > > http://movies.yahoo.com/
>
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Yahoo! Movies - coverage of the 74th Academy Awards.
> http://movies.yahoo.com/
>
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